OKLAHOMA CITY — After years of headline-grabbing fights over education, Oklahoma Republican voters appear to be sitting this one out — at least for now.
A new Sooner Survey from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates shows a staggering 61% of likely Republican primary voters are undecided in the race for state superintendent, with no candidate breaking into double digits. The survey was conducted May 4–5 among 500 GOP primary voters in Oklahoma County.
“If the election were today, ‘Undecided’ would win in a landslide,” pollster Pat McFerron said.
The poll puts John Cox nominally ahead at 9%, followed by Adam Pugh at 8%. Robert Franklin and Debra Herlihy each register 6%, James Taylor draws 5%, Toni Hassenbeck posts 4%, and William Crozier comes in at 1%. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, the entire field remains statistically clustered.
The lack of engagement is notable given the turbulence that defined former State Superintendent Ryan Walters’ tenure — a period marked by high-profile political clashes that kept education policy in the spotlight.
“Voters are clearly not yet engaged on this contest, which is a little surprising given the intensity created during the Ryan Walters tenure,” McFerron said. “This may well be a positive testament to Supt. Fields.”
Beneath the surface, the data suggests early — but limited — bases of support. Pugh performs best in central Oklahoma and metro areas, while Cox shows relative strength in rural regions, particularly in northeastern Oklahoma. Other candidates post smaller pockets of support, though all remain within the margin of error.
“The bottom line is that while one can argue that Adam Pugh and John Cox have at least nascent voting bases that the others do not, this contest is wide open,” McFerron said. “Almost any two of these candidates could make a runoff.”
With just over a month until the primary, the race remains volatile — and largely undefined — as campaigns face a compressed window to break through with an electorate that, so far, isn’t paying much attention.
