OKLAHOMA CITY — Oklahoma’s Republican race for governor is tightening into a four-way dead heat just days before candidates take the stage in Lawton, according to a new NonDoc survey that shows no clear frontrunner and little room for error.
The survey, conducted May 21–25 among 457 likely Republican voters, shows former Secretary of Finance Mike Mazzei leading with 22.1%, narrowly ahead of Attorney General Gentner Drummond at 21.66% and businessman Chip Keating at 21.44%. House Speaker Charles McCall follows at 18.38%, with the remaining candidates trailing in single digits.
With four candidates clustered within roughly four percentage points, the race amounts to a statistical dead heat — and remains far from the majority threshold required to avoid a runoff.
Debate in Lawton could reshape race
That dynamic heightens the stakes for the Republican gubernatorial debate set for 5:45 p.m. Thursday at Cameron University in Lawton.
Hosted by NonDoc in partnership with KSWO-TV, the debate will be held at the Cameron University Theatre and streamed live on KSWO’s website, along with KSWO and NonDoc social media platforms. A televised replay is also expected.
In a race with no dominant candidate, the debate represents a key early opportunity for sustained, side-by-side contrast — giving trailing candidates a chance to gain ground while forcing frontrunners to defend their positions under direct scrutiny.
Ideology and fragmentation shaping the field
The poll offers insight into why the race remains unsettled. A combined 69% of respondents identified as conservative on a seven-point ideological scale, including nearly 25% who described themselves as “extremely conservative.”
That ideological tilt — paired with a crowded field — has splintered support across multiple candidates appealing to overlapping factions of the GOP electorate.
Former state Sen. Jake Merrick registers 7.22% in the poll, while all other candidates fall below 5%, underscoring how little separation exists beyond the top tier.
Runoff increasingly likely
Under Oklahoma law, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to win a primary outright. With no candidate currently exceeding the low 20s, the numbers strongly point toward a runoff between the top two finishers — a scenario that would extend the contest and test coalition-building within the party.
Issues and emerging campaign flashpoints
The survey indicates economic concerns — including inflation and cost of living — along with infrastructure and immigration among the issues influencing Republican primary voters.
The poll also signals a potential new flashpoint in the campaign: artificial intelligence in political advertising.
More than 89% of respondents support requiring disclosure of AI in campaign materials, including 63% who strongly agree.
About 75% expressed at least some support for banning AI use in campaign materials altogether.
Those findings suggest the issue could quickly move from emerging concern to campaign liability — particularly in a close race where voter trust may carry outsized weight.
Bottom line
With four candidates locked in a near tie, a deeply conservative electorate and a runoff all but looming, Oklahoma’s GOP gubernatorial primary is entering a decisive stretch.
Thursday’s debate in Lawton may offer the clearest test yet of which candidates can consolidate support — and which remain stuck in a fractured field with little margin for error.
Source: NonDoc survey and reporting. Read the original reporting at:
NonDoc story on gubernatorial poll and debate
