State Treasurer Todd Russ appears to be facing an unexpectedly difficult reelection fight, according to new polling showing State Auditor Cindy Byrd opening an early double-digit lead in the Republican primary for treasurer.
A new Sooner Survey conducted by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates found Byrd leading Russ 39% to 22% among likely Republican primary voters, with 39% remaining undecided.
The results suggest potential vulnerability for Russ despite the traditional advantages usually associated with incumbency in statewide Oklahoma Republican politics.
The poll also found Russ struggling with name recognition after nearly four years in office.
According to the survey, 70% of Republican primary voters said they had never heard of Russ, while only 9% viewed him favorably and 6% unfavorably.
For a sitting statewide officeholder, those numbers present a significant challenge heading into a high-profile Republican primary cycle.
Byrd, meanwhile, entered the race with substantially stronger name identification and favorability ratings.
The survey found Byrd holding a 23% favorable rating while leading across most demographic categories tested in the poll.
Her support also appeared geographically broad, including strength in the Oklahoma City media market, which often plays a critical role in statewide Republican primaries.
The findings may also ease concerns among Byrd allies surrounding her late decision to leave the lieutenant governor’s race and instead challenge Russ for treasurer.
Some Republicans privately questioned whether the switch would create perceptions of political opportunism or weaken Byrd politically. The survey suggests Republican voters largely accepted the move without significant backlash.
Still, the race remains early, and nearly four in 10 Republican voters remain undecided.
Russ also has experience surviving difficult statewide contests. He won the treasurer’s office in 2022 despite being significantly outspent during the campaign.
But the broader political environment could complicate his reelection effort.
The 2026 Republican primary calendar is increasingly crowded with high-profile statewide races competing for donor attention, media coverage and voter engagement — conditions that can create additional pressure for lower-profile incumbents.
The survey found Byrd performing especially well among traditional Republicans, while Russ showed somewhat stronger support among self-identified Trump Republicans and frequent conservative media viewers.
Political strategists often view large early deficits differently for incumbents than challengers.
Unknown challengers can sometimes grow support over time as voters become familiar with them. Incumbents, however, typically enter reelection campaigns with existing public exposure and defined political identities.
The poll suggests many Republican voters still have not formed strong opinions about Russ despite his statewide office.
Byrd, meanwhile, enters the race with higher visibility and a more established political profile among Republican primary voters.
With months remaining before ballots are cast, both campaigns still have time to reshape the race. But the early polling indicates Russ may face a far more competitive primary than many Republicans initially expected.
