President Donald Trump has put his political brand behind candidates in three major Oklahoma Republican primaries, but analysts say the election results may reveal varying degrees of influence across the ballot.
OKLAHOMA CITY — President Donald Trump’s endorsements in three high-profile Oklahoma Republican primaries have turned Tuesday’s election into an early test of his political influence in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.
Trump has endorsed Tulsa wealth manager Mike Mazzei in the Republican primary for governor, Tulsa pastor Jackson Lahmeyer in the GOP primary for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District and former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon in the Republican primary for lieutenant governor.
The Oklahoman reported that Trump’s involvement in Oklahoma stands out because he entered several competitive Republican contests before clear favorites had emerged, rather than intervening in response to a political dispute or feud with an incumbent. Political observers told the newspaper that the outcomes could offer insight into how much sway Trump still holds over Republican voters.
Both Mazzei and Lahmeyer have ties to longtime Trump ally Roger Stone. Stone serves as a paid adviser to Mazzei’s campaign and previously backed Lahmeyer’s unsuccessful 2022 bid for the U.S. Senate, according to The Oklahoman.
The governor’s race has drawn particular attention. Mazzei faces strong competition from Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former House Speaker Charles McCall and businessman Chip Keating, all of whom have emphasized their conservative credentials and support for Trump’s agenda.
The Oklahoman reported that anti-Mazzei spending accelerated following Trump’s endorsement. Conservative Policy Project spent $1.2 million on television ads opposing Mazzei in June, while the Make Oklahoma Great Again PAC, which supports Drummond, spent about $1.8 million on advertisements and mailers opposing Mazzei from April through early June. The newspaper also reported that Mazzei has largely financed his campaign through nearly $11 million in loans to his campaign.
The newspaper further reported that fundraising continues to favor Drummond and Keating, while Trump-backed candidates elsewhere on the ballot have not necessarily established commanding financial advantages. Trump-endorsed lieutenant governor candidate T.W. Shannon, for example, only narrowly leads his competitors in campaign contributions, according to The Oklahoman.
Recent political assessments suggest Trump’s endorsements may have differing effects across the ballot. During KFOR’s Flash Point on Sunday, pollster Pat McFerron said he expects the gubernatorial contest to advance to an August runoff between Mazzei and Drummond, though he said Keating and former state Sen. Jake Merrick still have opportunities to contend. McFerron also said he would not be surprised if Shannon wins the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor outright and avoids a runoff.
Whether Trump’s backing proves decisive may depend less on who wins Tuesday than on the margins of victory and whether any of the major contests advance to August runoffs. University of Oklahoma political science professor Michael Crespin told The Oklahoman that if Mazzei wins the governor’s race outright, it would be difficult to dismiss the significance of Trump’s endorsement. If the race instead proceeds to a runoff, determining the extent of the president’s influence becomes far more complicated.
