Trump’s endorsement has helped Mazzei with some voters, but the president’s intense personal popularity has not transferred fully to his endorsed candidate.
OKLAHOMA CITY — Charges and countercharges have become a constant in Oklahoma’s Republican runoff for governor, and a new poll finds the heated campaign rhetoric coinciding with strong negative opinions of both Mike Mazzei and Gentner Drummond.
The attacks are coming through television advertising, social media and public statements. Mazzei and his allies have focused on Drummond’s past donations to Democrats and questioned his Republican loyalty. Drummond and his allies have challenged Mazzei’s consistency and political motives.
The poll cannot establish that the rhetoric caused voters’ opinions to change. But it provides a snapshot of an increasingly combative campaign in which both candidates have more strong detractors than strong supporters.
Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, discussed the findings in a Monday evening interview with OK Politics Today.
Intensity tells a different story
The CHS survey found that both candidates have slightly higher favorable than unfavorable ratings overall.
Drummond is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 38%. Mazzei’s rating is 41% favorable and 38% unfavorable.
The balance reverses when only the strongest opinions are considered. Drummond is viewed strongly favorably by 19% and strongly unfavorably by 22%. Mazzei is viewed strongly favorably by 18% and strongly unfavorably by 25%.
Mazzei’s overall image also became less favorable between two CHS surveys. His favorable rating fell from 47% in late July to 41% in the latest poll, while his unfavorable rating rose from 31% to 38%.
McFerron said changes in a candidate’s favorability rating can precede movement in the ballot results.
“You kind of decide you’re not going to go to this restaurant before you decide which new restaurant you’re going to,” he said.
Trump’s popularity does not transfer fully
President Donald Trump remains much more intensely popular among likely Republican runoff voters than either candidate.
Trump is viewed favorably by 74%, including 53% with a strongly favorable opinion. Just 16% view him strongly unfavorably.
Trump endorsed Mazzei shortly before the June primary, and Mazzei has made that support central to his runoff campaign. McFerron said the endorsement helps Mazzei among voters who identify most closely with Trump.
“A significant number of those become supporters of the endorsed candidate,” McFerron said. “Basically, most of Mazzei’s support comes from that group.”
But the endorsement has not made Mazzei as personally popular as Trump. Mazzei’s 18% strongly favorable rating is 35 percentage points below that of the president.
That does not mean the endorsement had no effect. The poll shows a relationship between identification with Trump and support for Mazzei, but it cannot determine how those voters would have chosen without Trump’s endorsement.
Some voters who dislike both may stay home
A cross-tabulation McFerron reviewed during the interview found that 10% of likely runoff voters view both Drummond and Mazzei unfavorably.
Nearly four in five of those voters have nevertheless chosen a candidate. The remaining 22% are undecided.
Because the subgroup includes only about 60 respondents, its percentages should be treated cautiously. McFerron said the more important question is whether voters who dislike both candidates will participate.
“People will choose the lesser of two evils,” he said. But, he added, “A lot of those won’t come out to vote if they dislike them both.”
All respondents had described themselves as extremely or very likely to participate in the runoff. Stated intention, however, does not guarantee that a voter will cast a ballot.
With Drummond and Mazzei tied at 44%, the result may depend not only on persuasion but on whether voters turned off by the increasingly bitter campaign show up Aug. 25.
CHS conducted the survey Aug. 3-6 among 600 likely Republican runoff voters using live telephone and text-to-web interviews. The reported margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The quarterly survey was not commissioned by either governor campaign. CHS disclosed that McFerron polls for attorney general candidate Jon Echols, whose campaign did not commission the survey.
