With the governor’s race consuming money and attention, name recognition and organization could decide three lower-profile Republican nominations.
OKLAHOMA CITY — Between 44% and 48% of likely Republican runoff voters remain undecided in three statewide contests that could help determine who holds the offices for the next four years.
A new Sooner Survey from Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates found no candidate with more than 30% support in the Republican runoffs for insurance commissioner, labor commissioner and state superintendent of public instruction.
Bob Sullivan led Marty Quinn 30% to 26% for insurance commissioner, with 44% undecided. Kevin West led John Pfeiffer 27% to 25% for labor commissioner, with 48% undecided.
The state superintendent contest was essentially even. Robert Franklin had 27%, James Taylor had 26% and 47% were undecided.
The differences between the candidates in all three contests were within the survey’s margin of error.
Pat McFerron, president of CHS, said the undecided percentages are unusually high this close to an election.
“I think it’s very high undecided for these races,” McFerron said in a Thursday interview with OK Politics Today.
Races driven by name recognition
McFerron said lower-profile statewide contests often turn on name recognition, but he believes that effect is more pronounced this year.
Candidate names were rotated in the survey, and voters received no biographical information or other descriptions before making their selections.
“People like to vote, so they just vote for the name that’s most familiar to them,” McFerron said.
McFerron said separate, unpublished results placed each superintendent candidate’s name identification at roughly 17%. That was below Franklin’s 27% support and Taylor’s 26% support on the ballot question.
Even older voters, who are among the most reliable participants in Republican elections, showed considerable uncertainty. Among voters 65 and older, 58% were undecided in the labor commissioner race and 61% were undecided in the superintendent contest.
“They’re not getting any information,” McFerron said. “They’re not seeing any information about these races.”
Governor’s race consumes attention and money
McFerron said the high-profile and increasingly contentious Republican runoff for governor has made it difficult for the other statewide candidates to attract attention.
He said the tens of millions of dollars spent during the gubernatorial primary prevented the lower-profile candidates from defining themselves or becoming widely known.
“It was not possible for them to cut through the noise during the primary,” McFerron said.
Whether they can do so before the Aug. 25 runoff may depend partly on their ability to raise enough money to communicate with voters.
“My guess is fundraising is very difficult in these down-ballot races because of that,” McFerron said.
Pre-runoff campaign finance reports should provide a more complete picture. Reports covering contributions and expenditures from June 2 through Aug. 10 must be filed with the Oklahoma Ethics Commission no later than Monday.
The reports will show how much the six candidates raised and spent during the runoff period and what they had available entering the campaign’s final two weeks.
Few voters could decide three nominations
McFerron said most political observers would consider 320,000 voters a high turnout for the Republican runoff. In a two-person race, roughly 160,000 votes could be enough to win a nomination.
The large undecided shares do not necessarily mean voters will skip the three contests. McFerron said a decline of 12% to 15% between participation in the governor’s race and the lower-profile races historically would be considered a large drop-off.
That means many voters who have chosen between Gentner Drummond and Mike Mazzei may still cast ballots in contests where they know little about either candidate.
“It really will get down to who turns out to vote,” McFerron wrote in the survey analysis. “Money, as always, will be a critical factor in the final weeks, but if it is difficult for candidates to cut through the noise of the gubernatorial contest, organization and grassroots could be vital.”
The stakes extend beyond selecting Republican nominees.
McFerron said a separate CHS survey of 500 likely November voters found a generic Republican leading a generic Democrat 53% to 33%. CHS plans to release a more detailed analysis of those findings next week.
That advantage led McFerron to predict the three Republican runoff winners will enter the general election as heavy favorites.
“We’re going to decide who the next insurance commissioner, who the next superintendent is, who the next labor commissioner is, on Aug. 25,” McFerron said. “We’re choosing from people we don’t know.”
The down-ballot survey included 600 likely Republican runoff voters and was conducted Aug. 3-6 using live telephone interviews and text messages directing respondents to an online survey. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The research was conducted as part of CHS’s quarterly omnibus survey, which McFerron said the firm has conducted for more than 30 years. McFerron said none of the candidates or organizations associated with their campaigns financed the polling, and he is not working for any of the six campaigns.
