Republicans lead statewide, but the parties are virtually even in the six counties the pollster classifies as metropolitan.
OKLAHOMA CITY — Once next Tuesday’s runoffs settle the remaining nominations, Republicans appear likely to head into November as heavy favorites in the statewide contests tested by a new Oklahoma poll.
Unlike recent surveys limited to Republican runoff voters, the Sooner Survey included registered Republicans, Democrats and independents.
The poll found 55% of voters would support the Republican candidate for the Oklahoma Legislature in their area, compared with 35% for the Democrat. The remaining 10% were undecided.
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, which conducted the poll, said the 20-point Republican advantage is the largest it has recorded since 2014. The firm has tracked the question since 1994.
But the statewide numbers hide a significant geographic divide. Pat McFerron, president of Cole Hargrave Snodgrass, called the metropolitan areas “where things are changing.”
The parties are virtually tied in the six-county metro group — Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Tulsa, Creek and Washington counties — with Democrats at 46% and Republicans at 45%. Republicans lead 66% to 23% across the other 71 counties.
The poll did not publish sample sizes or margins of error for the two geographic groups.
The Republican advantage comes despite mixed reviews for two of the party’s most prominent officeholders.
President Donald Trump’s ratings are almost evenly divided, with 49% viewing him favorably and 48% unfavorably. Gov. Kevin Stitt is viewed favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 56%.
McFerron wrote that voters are dissatisfied “not just with Republicans, but with both parties.”
Even so, he added, “even if Republicans are not embraced, they are still preferred to Democratic options.”
Republicans lead statewide contests
Republican U.S. Senate nominee Kevin Hern leads either potential Democratic opponent by more than 20 points. Hern leads N’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 49% to 25% and Jim Priest 48% to 27%, with independent and third-party candidates included.
Each Senate matchup was asked of only half the survey respondents.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Republican T.W. Shannon leads Democrat Kelly Forbes 51% to 34%. Republican Jon Echols leads Democrat Nick Coffey 52% to 34% in the attorney general’s race.
Neither the Shannon nor Echols campaign funded the poll, according to the survey’s disclosure. McFerron, however, is the pollster of record for both campaigns.
The survey of 500 registered Oklahoma voters was conducted Aug. 3-6 through live calls to mobile and landline phones and text messages directing respondents to an online questionnaire. The overall margin of error is 4.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
