Munson can compete in metropolitan Oklahoma. Her problem is that Joy Hofmeister did, too, and still lost by nearly 14 points.
By Tim Allen, Managing Editor
The political “smart people” — and the quotation marks are intentional — have already moved on to November.
Some say Mike Mazzei can start choosing curtains for the Governor’s Mansion. Others are talking up Cyndi Munson as a Democrat with a decent chance to stop him.
Here is what the numbers say: Mazzei is the clear favorite. Munson has the beginning of a path through metropolitan Oklahoma, but talk of a competitive race is not supported by the evidence.
Oklahoma has heard this before
Four years ago, plenty of people who understood Oklahoma politics believed Joy Hofmeister had a real chance to defeat Gov. Kevin Stitt.
These were not dumb people. Hofmeister was a statewide elected official and a former Republican. Several late polls showed the race tied or put her ahead, and the possibility of an upset drew national attention.
Stitt won 55% to 42%.
The confidence surrounding Hofmeister’s chances was badly misplaced. That does not mean Munson cannot win this year. It does mean early predictions about a close race deserve a closer look than they are getting.
The most useful place to begin is not with candidate personalities, campaign money or the latest social media enthusiasm. It is with the sharp divide between metropolitan Oklahoma and the rest of the state.
The six-county divide
A Sooner Survey released before the runoff gave Republicans a 55%-35% statewide advantage when voters were asked which party’s candidate they would support for the Legislature.
Inside the six counties the pollster classified as metropolitan — Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Tulsa, Creek and Washington — Democrats led 46%-45%.
Across the other 71 counties, Republicans led 66%-23%.
OK Politics Today has not found a publicly released poll testing Mazzei directly against Munson. The Sooner Survey does not tell us where their race stands. It does show a political divide that closely matches recent election results.
In 2022, Hofmeister carried those same six counties by almost 12,000 votes over Stitt. She lost the other 71 counties by more than 169,000.
Four years earlier, Democrat Drew Edmondson carried the six counties by some 2,200 votes. Stitt won the other 71 by more than 145,000.
The pattern is clear. A Democrat can run slightly ahead of a Republican across the state’s largest population centers and still lose badly statewide.
Those six counties now contain slightly more than half of Oklahoma’s registered voters. They also accounted for more than half of the state’s registration growth between January and July.
That makes them essential to Munson. It does not make them sufficient.
Even Tuesday’s Republican runoff reflected the divide. Gentner Drummond carried those six counties by 874 votes. Mazzei won the other 71 by 2,921, enough to secure the nomination by just over 2,000 votes statewide.
A Republican electorate is not the same as a general-election electorate. Still, Mazzei enters November having just demonstrated that a candidate can lose the metropolitan group narrowly and prevail.
The messages behind the math
Mazzei and Munson’s opening general-election messages fit those calculations.
Mazzei used his election-night speech to describe the Democratic agenda as “socialistic ideas” and accuse Munson of favoring higher taxes and government spending. He also attacked her over transgender participation in girls’ sports. He is betting that party loyalty and conservative values will preserve the Republican advantage outside the metropolitan counties.
Munson is betting on affordability and relatability. She has emphasized schools, healthcare and household costs, talked about paying rent and student loans and contrasted that experience with the roughly $11.6 million Mazzei has put into his campaign. That message must do more than expand Democratic margins in metropolitan Oklahoma. It must loosen the Republican hold on working voters elsewhere.
Only one of those strategies begins with a proven statewide advantage.
What Munson must prove
Munson does not simply need to carry the six metropolitan counties. Been there, done that with Hofmeister.
She must win them by a substantially larger margin and keep Mazzei from approaching the Republican margins Stitt amassed across the other 71 counties.
That gives Munson a strategy. It does not yet give her a competitive race.
Mazzei holds the Republican nomination in a state where Republicans account for more than half of all registered voters. He is entering the general election with Trump’s endorsement, the demonstrated ability and willingness to spend millions of his own money, and a message tailored to voters who have delivered commanding Republican margins outside the metropolitan counties.
Munson has identified a message that could resonate with working voters. The metropolitan numbers give her somewhere to begin.
Neither, by itself, makes the race competitive.
Munson must show that her affordability argument can produce a commanding metropolitan advantage and reduce Republican margins elsewhere. Until she does, Mazzei remains the clear favorite. Oklahoma’s recent voting patterns leave little room for any other conclusion.
